Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Controversy Over "Possible" Asteroid Collision


This week's ridiculousness began when a group of Russian scientists released a study in which they determined that the asteroid Apophis (which, by the way is pronounced like you are saying "a blow fish" but with a mouth full of marshmallows) had a significant chance of impacting the Earth in the year 2036.
Never mind the fact that NASA determined long ago that there was merely a 1 in 250,000 chance of such an impact. To put this into perspective, I am about as likely to attend a major league baseball game and catch a ball from the stands. Twice.
So why all the fuss? Well, the 900 foot long asteroid is going to pass within 20,000 miles of Earth -- which is extremely close by the way -- in 2029. During this pass there is an extremely unlikely chance that it could pass through what is known as a key hole. Key holes are regions of space that have a specific gravitational potential that would cause a passing object to eventually (in this case seven years later) impact our planet.
This particular keyhole is about 2000 feet in diameter, which is only slightly larger than Apophis itself. And considering that the orbital mechanics of the rock are likely to change, even if ever so slightly, between now and then it is extremely unlikely that it would pass through the key hole.
And even if the asteroid does pass within the keyhole? NASA researchers also point out that the gravitationally bound object is likely to break apart long before it makes it back to Earth in 2036. So it would still miss us anyway.
But, just to put your minds even further at ease, should the asteroid be determined to be on its way here, NASA is prepared to stop it. Basically they would just slam probe into the asteroid to knock it slightly off its course, sending it past Earth. They have already demonstrated this ability with the Deep Impact probe which impacted the comet Temple 1 in 2005.
On the flip side, many researchers are excited about the close pass in 2029, and see it as an opportunity to conduct detailed studies of the object. So there you have it, no need to worry at all.

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